TITLE: Going for Broke

AUTHOR: Danny Rubinstein

PUB: Ha'aretz

DATE: February 17, 2001

The breakdown of the economy and of law and order in the Palestinian territories, along with a growing alienation between the leadership and the masses, means that Arafat's regime is close to total collapse. The rule of the Palestinian Authority is crumbling. This determination is based not only on data that indicates a significant decline in the functioning of all of PA Chairman Yasser Arafat's administrative mechanisms, but also by the fact that in the long run, the Palestinian regime and the Intifada cannot exist side by side. Rule means the imposition of law and order, development and welfare schemes for the public, the provision of services and protection to the population. The Intifada means the exact opposite: disturbances and violent incidents, the total disruption of services and normal daily life, the end of development and a life of siege and poverty.The more time passes, the clearer it becomes that either there is someone in charge, or there is the Intifada. In other words, if the Intifada continues, there will be no more Palestinian government. Israelis and Palestinians alike share this evaluation as they look on with a fair amount of anxiety at the events of the Intifada, which are undermining the basis of the governing institutions of the PA. No longer is there talk of stopping the violent incidents in the West Bank and Gaza and a return to diplomatic talks. "The Intifada is a necessity, whereas the negotiations are only a possibility," read a headline in the Palestinian Authority organ Al Hayat al Jedida last week. In this state of affairs, many believe that the total collapse of the Palestinian regime is now only a matter of time, and it is difficult to imagine what will happen then in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The breakdown of the Palestinian administration is evident in every area; the judicial and law enforcement systems hardly function at all in the territories. Even in the past, they were neither orderly nor strong; now they barely exist. In the Palestinian cities, groups of armed young men operate. Some, the Tanzim, have connections to Fatah or to opposition organizations, and there are also gangs of marginal individuals who pretend to represent valid nationalist positions. These groups are carrying out most of the actions of the Intifada against the Israel Defense Forces and the Jewish settlers beyond the 1967 borders, as well as against suspected collaborators. Active in many of these groups are people from the Palestinian security services. Arafat's rule relies on these services, and they have been considerably weakened in recent months. The PA's coffers are empty and its treasury has cut back the budgets of the security services. The strongest among them - the Preventive Security commanded by Jibril Rajoub in the West Bank and Mohammed Dahlan in Gaza - got significant additional income from providing security services to various institutions. In the West Bank, for example, Preventive Security provided all the guard and security services for the casino in Jericho, and took in considerable sums. In Gaza, the Preventive Security people arranged for the transit of goods in and out of the Strip, and charged handsomely for this. These were official arrangements. But when there is no casino and no transit of goods, there is also no money for the security services. Members of these services who have not received their salaries have left. Some have moved on to the Tanzim, and others have joined the Intifada activists or various gangs that wield authority. The crime rate in the territories has skyrocketed, and there are many attempts to extort money from wealthy people in the guise of nationalism. Theft from Israeli areas has increased greatly. Stolen cars go for a song now in the territories, about NIS 1,000. The price has plummeted because there is a good supply. Alienation between the administration and the masses has increased considerably of late. Many older people are afraid to go out in the street. They have been frightened by the murder in Gaza of the director general of Palestinian TV, Hisham Meki, who was accused of corruption and was shot to death on the Gaza beach. "The muzzles of our guns that are aimed at the hearts of the Jews will also not miss the hearts of the traitors, the collaborators and the corrupt," read a broadside against Mohammed Dahlan, distributed in Gaza, that caused a stir in the territories last week. It was signed by the "Iz a Din al Kassam Battalions," of Hamas. Hamas spokesmen denied any knowledge of it, but it is doubtful that this gave any comfort to the VIPs, who fear that the broadside was directed at them. The decline of the economy of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip has been rapid. With the outbreak of the Intifada, less than five months ago, the Palestinian economy came to a sudden halt. Infrastructure work ceased. The huge national project of building the Gaza port is paralyzed, as are such projects as the sewage system in Nablus or refurbishing the electricity network in the Jenin and Tubas areas. About half of Palestinian industry has come to a standstill. Many of the textile, stone and food plants have been closed, either because of a shortage of raw materials or because of a cutoff in links to the markets. The trade areas with the Israelis, that is the large popular markets of Qalqilyah and Tul Karm, the trans-Samaria highway, Jenin and Bethlehem, which thousands of Israelis used to visit - stand empty. Sales in these markets were once estimated to have reached $500 million a year. Now they are zero. The banks in the territories have stopped extending credit. The municipalities are unable to collect taxes and have cut back most of their services. The health, education and welfare systems have been severely damaged. The restrictions on movement, the closure and the encirclement imposed by the IDF make it difficult for doctors and nurses to get to the hospitals and clinics, and of course many patients do not manage to come for treatment. Many students and teachers are stopped on their way to the educational institutions, where studies have been entirely disrupted. Major General Yaakov "Mendi" Or, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the West Bank and Gaza, says that as far back as a year ago or more, there were indications in the territories of dangerous processes of alienation between the regime and the general public. People from his bureau relate that last year, the number of internal incidents in the territories increased: stone-throwing at French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin during his visit to Bir Zeit University; the violent clash between the Palestinian police and demonstrators at the Deheisheh refugee camp during the Pope's visit; dozens of shooting incidents involving members of rival security forces; quarrels and eruptions of mob violence because of court rulings, disputes over jobs and power positions or matters of honor and women. All of these, says Or, indicated problems with the Palestinian regime's ability to maintain law and order. What is happening now is that things have become considerably accelerated: The general public is paying the very heavy price of the Intifada, says Or. This includes massive financial losses, poverty and want, severe unemployment, daily suffering from services that are collapsing, dead and wounded. And what are they getting in return? How long will this continue? Most of the anger is directed at the State of Israel. But the Palestinian administration is not coming out of this clean. Israel is the enemy - but where is the Palestinian national government, whose job it is to protect the people from the enemy, whose job it is to provide services? In a situation like this, there are always accusing fingers pointed at the local people in authority, at the government and the Palestinian establishment - who have enough to continue living well. Arafat and his people know this. Last month they decided to allot the sum of NIS 600 to everyone who had had work in Israel and was now sitting at home for the fifth month in a row. The distribution of this money was conducted carelessly and aroused many complaints. Many people clustered at the points where the money was doled out and demonstrated bitterly. They said, they're making fools of us, NIS 600 is a joke, look how the cabinet members are living, the directors-generals and the generals. All this is leading in the direction of an escalation in the incidents and a breakdown of the regime. Some of the Palestinian cities and areas are cut off from one another. In some of them, the situation is approaching anarchy. In Bethlehem, for example, the local economy, which was based on tourism, has collapsed completely. Many people who had invested heavily in tourism installations have incurred huge losses. Residents are saying that an atmosphere of lawlessness prevails there. A similar fate may be expected in all the territories - and what will come in place of the crumbling Palestinian regime. © 2000 Ha'aretz. All Rights Reserved END top