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TITLE: Intelligence Chief Warns of More Violence Without a Deal

AUTHOR: Gideon Alon

 PUB: Ha'aretz

DATE: December 30, 2000

The Palestinians are likely to escalate their violence against Israel this spring if they believe that Israel is purposely stalling negotiations after the prime ministerial elections in February, director of Military Intelligence Major General Amos Malka said yesterday. In a briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Malka added that the level of Palestinian violence had not yet reached its maximum level. He said it would continue on a limited scale if an agreement is not reached soon, with possible escalation in the spring. Malka said that until a new government is in place in Israel and the Bush administration begins functioning in Washington, Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat will make an effort to keep the diplomatic process alive. He said that Arafat has shown a willingness to conduct serious negotiations with Israel in an effort to reach an agreement before the upcoming elections, as the Palestinian leader apparently believes that Israel is now willing to go the last mile.

Arafat understands that U.S. President Bill Clinton's bridging proposals represent the most flexible positions that Israel can adopt, Malka said, and he also understands that if the current window of opportunity is squandered, the peace process will enter a long period of uncertainty. Malka said he believes the Arab world understands that the return of large numbers of Palestinians to Israel's pre-1967 borders is a red line which Israel will never cross. He also said that while Arafat cannot completely control attacks on Israel, he plays a crucial role in setting the tone.

Malka warned that Hamas and Islamic Jihad were increasingly cooperating in their attacks against Israel. He said there were indications that the two Islamic groups want to carry out a dramatic mass attack that would hit as many Israelis as possible, and the PA is doing nothing to try and prevent such an operation. He estimated the economic cost to the Palestinians of the past three monthsof violence at about $800 million, but said they had the determination and the means to continue fighting.

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