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TITLE: The Military Gathers Strength |
AUTHOR: |
PUB: Stratfor, Inc |
DATE: April 19, 2001 |
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As Jakarta is divided by politics and protest, the 297,000-member Armed Forces of Indonesia (TNI) is finding ways to coalesce and gather strength. After months of jockeying for power and purging opponents, senior officers appear to have settled on the distribution of power within the military. Jakarta's civilian political figures are allowing the military to play an increased role in the country. One has called on politicians to let the military decide its restructuring. The best way to help the TNI "conduct its internal reforms [is] by not disturbing it," said the country's coordinating minister for political, social and security affairs, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, according to the Jakarta Post. Shortly afterward, Wahid's Cabinet granted the military greater leeway in putting down the rebellion in Aceh. A quid pro quo is shaping up in Jakarta, as civilian politicians direct the military to solve problems in the provinces, hoping soldiers will not intervene in the tumultuous politics of the capital. For now, senior officers seem intent on avoiding politics. But the military will not remain on the sidelines indefinitely. It is motivated by the desire to preserve the state in the face of a series of separatist movements. And in each of these rebellions, the military's conduct becomes fodder for criticism, which undermines Wahid's government. Jakarta itself will likely prompt cries for military intervention later this year. The capital is torn by protests and calls to violence. The president is well on his way to impeachment hearings, which will rile his supporters. If the hearings are postponed, his opponents will riot. In August, the Parliament will convene in a full session, a time when political forces converge on Jakarta with supporters, protests and violence. The police will not be able to control the situation and the government will be forced to turn to the army. Indonesia's military has struggled to define its role since the 1999 fall of former President Suharto. Under Suharto, Indonesia's military wielded considerable political influence. In turn, the armed forces, which then included the police, served government interests by ensuring domestic stability and suppressing opposition and unrest. But Suharto's replacement, B.J. Habibie, ordered the separation of the police from the military. The police would maintain internal security; the military would defend against external threats. The police were unprepared to take over the role as the sole provider of internal state security. Difficulties posed by a lack of equipment and specialized training were further exacerbated by a rise in separatist, ethnic and religious violence as the heavy hand of the military lifted from society. With the police incapable of dealing with the internal unrest and the political leadership immersed in power plays, the military sees little choice but to return to its former role: ensuring stability. All along, top officers have sought legal approval for taking up the mantle of national security. Following a meeting of senior Indonesian army officers in Jakarta March 1, Gen. Endriartono Sutarto, the army's chief of staff, suggested in comments to the press that the police are not equipped to deal with internal security problems. He called for a "transitional regulation" to allow the army to be "proactive in maintaining security." The proposals for such a legal framework have ranged far and wide. Susilo has suggested the military be given wide latitude to deal with a variety of threats, bringing nearly every issue under the military's purview. Already, the government appears to be compromising with the military. On March 12, the government announced it had officially declared the Free Aceh Movement a separatist organization, giving the military authority to quell acts of violence as well as shape policy and strategy. Effectively, the compromise that civilians have brokered with the military creates a dual regime, one political and one military. In the political regime, civilian political leaders are hoping they will be left alone to sort out Jakarta's jockeying for power. In the military regime, the outlying provinces, the military is allowed to quell unrest and devise policy. The civilians and the generals want to keep the military out of politics, a nearly impossible task under the dual regime. Any move the military makes to deal with separatist actions, illegal migrants or rebellion will have political ramifications in the capital. Further, while the military controls the guns, the government controls the budget. The civilians can interfere with actions in the provinces by withholding funds over atrocities and human rights violations. The military continues to shy away from taking sides in Jakarta's political wrangling. Although military leaders have emphasized their loyalty to President Wahid, they are quick to clarify the military will not take extraconstitutional action. But with the ongoing process of censuring Wahid, demonstrators and protestors are growing bolder ? and more violent. Ultimately, the separation of the political and military agendas will lead to increased competition between the military and civilian leadership as each seeks to promote its own agenda. While the political elite remain fractured, the military are pulling together to create a unified front. However reluctantly, the military will once again insert itself into Indonesia's politics, if only initially to ensure social stability. END |