TITLE: Angola: Military Shake-up Threatens Security

AUTHOR:

PUB: Stratfor, Inc.

DATE: March 12, 2001

Summary The sacking of several senior military leaders by Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos indicates the emergence of a split between the Angolan military and government. Prompted by a shift in the focus of Angola's political landscape away from the government's 26-year-old war with UNITA and toward economic development, the emergence of political factions within the government and military may undercut the future stability of the dos Santos regime and create an opportunity for rebel forces to exploit. Analysis A shake-up of the Angolan military's senior leadership suggests the emergence of a rift between the administration of Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and senior military leaders. Prompted by the economic and political implications of post-war Angola, a divide between the government and the military could challenge the future stability of the dos Santos regime and create an opportunity for the resurgence of rebel forces. Enmeshed in conflict since independence in 1975, Angola's seesaw war has seen gains on both sides. Now, the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) - led by President dos Santos - has gained the upper hand at the same time that UNITA is on the decline. Although fighting continues, Luanda has successfully hemmed in UNITA through security alliances with all of Angola's neighbors. But a reduced threat from UNITA opens the door to another destabilizing force, namely competition and conflict among members of the ruling government. Held together by years of fighting a common enemy, the ruling party and other senior government and military leaders likely will begin to factionalize over the development of a national economy and the distribution of political power in Angola. Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos Developing the national economy is a key priority for the dos Santos government since the majority of Angolans live below the poverty level, unemployment is rife and the nation's infrastructure is devastated after years of war. The president's motivations for rebuilding Angola's shattered economy are twofold. Most important, dos Santos hopes an expanded economy will reduce Luanda's reliance upon fluctuating oil revenues. Angola is sub-Saharan Africa's second-largest oil producer and the eighth-largest supplier of crude to the United States. Oil accounts for 40 percent of Angola's GDP and almost all of government revenues, reports the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. By reviving the economy, the president can not only fend off potential challengers through the use of patronage, but he also can undercut any future opponents - popular support by providing economic growth. Moreover, economic development in central and southern Angola undercuts UNITA's traditional bases of support. In line with this strategy, dos Santos has initiated several plans to revive the economy, including the reformation of investment laws in an attempt to attract foreign investment in non-oil sectors of the economy. Angola's Entrepreneurial Reforming Office (GARE) is also moving to privatize state-owned enterprises, Panafrican News Agency reported Feb. 13. Luanda has begun to restore Angola's infrastructure, including recently inking a deal with Italy to build a new port at Porto Amboin in the central Kuanza-Sul province, the Panafrican news agency reported Feb. 1. The port acts as a terminal for the Amboin railway, which has been out of service since the late 1980s. The government plans to restore the rail line as well. The president's efforts aim to ensure Angola's long-term stability - with him at the helm. But they also may spark a surge of infighting in Luanda, as senior government and military officials begin positioning themselves to capitalize on Angola's post war economic development. Already, the recent dismissals of several senior military officials suggest an emerging split between the dos Santos administration and the military. In mid-January, the president dismissed the long-serving and widely popular Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Joao de Matos. The government also sacked other senior military officers, including the Army Chief of Staff Gen. Luis Faceira and the military's intelligence chief, Cirila de Sa. Former Deputy Defense Minister Armando de Cruz Neto was installed as the new armed forces chief, Gen. Mateus Miguel Angola as army chief, Feliciano Antonio dos Santos as admiral of the navy and Adm. Gaspar Rufino as new deputy defense minister. According to the government, the shuffle came at the end of de Matos' second four-year term and therefore was scheduled. But the apparent unexpectedness of the dismissal, along with the installment of key dos Santos allies, indicates the shuffle may be an effort by dos Santos to consolidate his hold over the military. Following the shake-up, dos Santos ordered the entire restructuring of the military headquarters, including the review and overhaul of the system of military operations, recruitment and enrollment, logistics and even education. More importantly, the president 'ordered the clarification of institutional reports between the political side and the military command in accordance with the regulations of the defense minister, the general army headquarters and army units,' the Panafrican news agency reported Feb. 14. The president's efforts to gain firm control over the military are likely preemptive. Aimed at ensuring his ability to withstand political challenges likely to arise in a post-war Angola, dos Santos hopes to consolidate his control over the key instruments of power now before the challenges arise. Positioning himself for a post-war scenario, however, will only prompt others to do the same. It may also alienate potential allies. De Matos is being mentioned as a potential challenger to dos Santos' continued reign in next year's general elections. His abrupt dismissal also could undercut dos Santos' support with the military, especially among the rank and file who reportedly are firm supporters of the former chief of staff. The emergence of factions within the military may, in turn, damage its continued ability to prosecute the war. Although UNITA is on the ropes, it has little motivation to surrender and, according the United Nations, is stockpiling weapons from Eastern Europe, most likely in hopes of launching a renewed offensive. As long as dos Santos keeps the pressure on, UNITA has a limited chance. But divisions within the Angolan military may create an opening for UNITA to exploit. More important, perhaps, is the potential for disagreement within the ruling party. While no evidence has surfaced to suggest the MPLA has fractured, the shift toward post-war development could create tensions within the ruling party as well. END top