|
|
|
|
TITLE: Russia To Lose Georgia As Strategic Partner |
AUTHOR: |
PUB: RBC |
DATE: January 3, 2001 |
|
The New Year started with a regular retreat of Russians. The time we are leaving Georgia. Russian troops in this country are to be withdrawn from this country again. Russia fulfilled its international obligations having withdrawn military equipment from the military bases in Gudaut and Vaziani in December 2000. Russian frontier guards had left Georgia before that,and a tendency to extrude Russia from the republic makes it necessary to speculate on the question what is going on in reality. Is it a thought-out step of Russian diplomats or the next error? If it is athought-out step, then Russia turns out to lose a strategic partner in the person of Georgia (Moscow and Tbilisi used to announce they are strategic partners). Then who is to become our new strategic partner? If, for quite understandable reasons, to exclude Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan from this number, then the choice does not seem to be very rich - what is left is Armenia. Moreover, it is not quite clear according to what parameters Russian politicians choose strategic partners, if they have not formulated national interests and international political trends yet. Thus, this step seems to be a mistake. But when will Russian diplomats stop moving back yielding its positions in the international arena? In this connection them development of Russian-Georgian relations, their evolution from "the eternal friendship" to a steady resentment against each other, is of great interest. Having lost a hope to settle its problems with the help of Russia, official Tbilisi decided to turn to the West, where there is always somebody willing to help those CIS countries that are tired of a sluggish development of the Commonwealth. The United States has promised to support Georgia, and it seems to be keeping its promise. Thus, January 2, 2001 Bill Clinton ordered to normalize trade relations between America and Georgia. The resolution signed by the American president says that Georgia has reached certain progress in the creation of a democratic society and a market economy. In addition, the migration policy of Georgia fully meets demands of the 1974 US Trade Act. Russia has not determined its policy in connection with either Abkhazia or Georgia yet. To join Abkhazia with Russia is to create new problems in international affairs. But, at the same time, only a naive person would believe that Abkhazia will voluntary return to Georgia. On the other hand, it seems theoretically possible. Georgia, for instance, may ask NATO to repeat the Balkan scenario in Abkhazia. In other words, Georgia wants to settle its domestic problem with the help of others. But, this may mean the beginning of a bloody war, because the population of Abkhazia will struggle for its independence as severely as they did in 1992-1994. And Russia is unlikely to stand aside in such a situation. While Moscow is speculating what to choose Georgia or Abkhazia, Turkey is expressing high interest in the latter. It is making investments in the development of trade with the republic and is participating in the construction of a tobacco factory in Gudaut. Thus, Russia has to make its choice as soon as possible, no matter how difficult it is. END |