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TITLE: Saddam Wins Round |
AUTHOR: |
PUB: Iraq Sanctions Monitor |
DATE: March 1, 2001 |
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President Saddam Hussain has won an important round in his 10-year-old battle against UN sanctions led by the US and the UK. Sanctions may be relaxed or made more focused, Washington and London say after widespread international criticism of their latest military strikes against Iraqi targets. The first substantive review of policy over Iraq since the establishment of the UN's oil-for-food programme four years ago follows conflicting signals from the US and the UK. The review process may take months, UK officials say. The talk is of "smart sanctions" focused more tightly on banning weapons imports and reducing controls on civilian goods imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. The phrase has prompted vice-president Taha Yassin Ramadan to describe the new ideas as "poison". Baghdad nevertheless has reason to be pleased with developments in recent months - including the aftermath of strikes against targets near Baghdad by US and UK aircraft on 16 February. The raids, coming within weeks of George W Bush taking over the US presidency, were the most extensive since December 1998. UK press reports say London made behind-the-scenes efforts in 2000 to tell Baghdad of a greater UK flexibility over sanctions. London was prepared to discuss parts of UN resolution 1284 of two years ago which the Iraqis objected to, offering assurances that sanctions would be suspended if UN weapons inspectors were allowed back. Senior Qatari officials acted as intermediaries. But Saddam Hussain - apparently suspicious of UK intentions and wanting to wait for a new US administration - did not pursue the offer. Former UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office minister Peter Hain said in January that the Iraqi leader would find "reasonable people ready to do business" if he was prepared to negotiate the return of the weapons inspectors. In Washington, the new Bush administration appeared to be taking a tough line, with Secretary of State Colin Powell saying he wanted to "re-energise" sanctions against Baghdad. To everyone's apparent surprise, US and UK aircraft carried out raids on anti-aircraft missile defence facilities near Baghdad on 16 February. Baghdad said at least two civilians were killed. The US and the UK described the raid as routine and defensive, saying that their aircraft had recently come under increasing threat from an improved defence system. US press reports said China has been helping Iraq's air defences by installing underground fibre-optic cables; Beijing and Baghdad strongly denied the allegation. The air raids provoked a wave of criticism around the world, from US allies in Europe, and Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as from Russia. The criticism was the strongest in years, and showed the US and the UK to be isolated. The two countries seemed to shift their ground in the week after the raids - suggesting they were prepared to see a relaxation of sanctions. "We will see if there is room to sharpen the sanctions around weapons of mass destruction," John Sawyers, foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Tony Blair, said on 20 February. Blair was due to meet Bush in Washington on 23 February. The sanctions were part of a mix of elements aimed at containing Saddam Hussain, including control of oil revenues, enforcement around Iraq's borders and military posture, he said. "The elements of that containment strategy will be looked at again," he said. Officials in London say Powell's call to "re-energise" sanctions is in line with a shift towards smart sanctions. But they add it is not clear whether his view will prevail over more hawkish members of the Bush administration. Iraqi Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf was on his way to the UN for a high-level session on the issue scheduled for 26-27 February. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said on 20 February that he hopes to "pursue attempts to break the impasse and pull them [Iraqis] into co-operation with the UN". Source: Middle East Economic Digest END |